This post probably will not be for everyone, but damn those of you for whom it is not. (unless you are a stat geek like me, then this will be boring and seem rudimentary, even simplistic, but I digress.)Now, to proceed you must know that I am an admitted stat geek.  There is no need to deny that.  As a child I would fill sheet after sheet of blank paper with imaginary stats that I would come up with by rolling 5-6 dice and by using baseball or basketball playing cards.  I can't explain how I did it, or why frankly, just that I did it.  What can I say? I love stats. 

Well, fortunately over the past few years a number of dedicated statisticians have been coming up with new statistics that can be used to understand the NBA a little bit better.  The most popular of these statisticians in NBA circles is by far John Hollinger, who is now a regular contributor for ESPN.com. 

Hollinger is the father of the PER rating which is used to statistically quantify the per minute output of NBA players.  Here is a detailed description of the way PER is formulated.  Now, PER is not perfect, as it underestimates hustle, and unmeasurable defensive attributes (Bruce Bowen is lowly rated, despite his obvious value as a defensive force, at least in years past.) Despite it's shortcomings, PER is far superior in evaluating a player's ability to using standard stats (pts, reb, ast) as it factors in pace of play, rebounding percentages, turnover rate, and usage rate.  Every year, Hollinger projects player's PER in the pre-season and it is eerie to see how close he gets.

PER aside, Hollinger also uses extensive statistical formulas to project won-loss records as the season is ongoing. Here is that formula. It is alarmingly accurate as well and it can change day to day, based on how a team is playing. A big part of this equation takes 2 major stats that most fans know nothing about to come up with it's projections: offensive and defensive efficiency.  A quick run down:

Offensive Efficiency: The number of points a team scores per 100 possessions. This is a much more valuable tool for assessing a team's offensive ability than points per game as some teams play at a much faster pace than others. 

Defensive Efficiency: The number of points a team allows per 100 possessions. Again, some teams play so slowly that they give up less points just because they shoot less and slow the game down.  This measurement is an equalizer in seeing who actually plays better defense. 

I got bored today and decided that I was going to look at each team's offensive and defensive efficiency and compare it to their final stats of 07-08 to see if the stats helped to explain what has happened so far during this 08-09 season. I also used Hollinger's playoff calculator (link above) to see what the projected W/L totals are for each team, as of Tuesday, January 27th.  Anyway, here are some of my findings:

Teams Projected To Make The Biggest Jumps Forward: There are 7 teams that project a 10 or more win improvement from last year to this. They are:

1. Miami: +29 Wins
Two words describe this turnaround: Dwayne Wade.  Look at the statistical improvements for Miami with Wade in the lineup.

5.2 more points per 100 possessions
4.1 fewer points given up per 100 possessions

9.3 points is a huge change in overall differential, particularly when you realize that Miami is playing at virtually the same pace as last year (92.7 shots per 100 possessions vs 92.5 last year)and it has shown for the Heat as they push for a home playoff series in the East.

2. Cleveland: +19 Wins
Seeing that projected improvement in wins is especially scary to Boston fans, as the 19 fewer win Cavs pushed the C's harder than any team last playoffs, including the Lakers in the Finals.  Statistically, it's easy to see why this team has gone from good to great:

6.7 more points per 100 possessions
6.2 fewer points given up per 100 possessions

A 12.9 point difference is just ridiculous.  And the Cavs are actually playing a slower pace than last year. I can understand with Miami, they were awful last year, but all Cleveland really did was add Mo Williams.  The rest of the improvement is really on LeBron James as he is just playing out of his damned skull.  This team is just brutally efficient. Please, Sweet Jesus let the Magic knock these guys off so Boston doesn't have to play them.

3.  Minnesota: +13
This number may even keep going up. If Minnesota didn't start out the season looking like they would have been better off with Corky from Life Goes On as their starting point guard, they could have contended for a playoff spot.  They probably wouldn't have gotten it, but they would have made a few team sweaty in the Jockstrap. 

1.4 more points per 100 possessions
2.0 fewer points given up per 100 possessions

Those numbers may not seem striking, but look for them to keep going up, as Minny started off really, really badly this year. Also, Minny seemed to lose a lot of really close games last year and at the start of this one, so a 3.4 point differential can lead to a lot of extra wins in a league where the games are often very closely contested.   I really, really like this team, by the way.

4.  New York: +12
I think that this one is perhaps the most surprising.  Not because the Knicks will win more games, everyone could see that coming after they fired one of the worst coaches ever and hired a very good NBA coach, Mike D'Antoni.  The Knicks have upped their pace more than any other team in the NBA, as everyone knew would happen (99.2 shots per 100 possessions this year compared to 94.1 per 100 last year.) Ok, here are the numbers:

2.3 more points per 100 possessions
2.7 fewer points given up per 100 possessions

Although the Knicks have improved on offense, their larger improvement has been on the defensive effort.  This may not be a revelation to most of us, but the Knicks dumbass owner James Dolan has hopefully figured out that having a coach you actually like and respect does factor in on how hard guys play.  

5. Milwaukee: +12
This number is about to plummet drastically with the season-ending injury to Michael Redd, but you have to give the Bucks credit for improving under redass coach Scott Skiles.  While the Bucks still are not a great defensive team, they are VASTLY improved under Skiles' heavy hand, they are also playing a little bit better offensively (due to fear of Skiles hurting their families):

1.2 more points per 100 possessions
6.3 fewer points given up per 100 possessions

That is a gigantic defensive improvement, and they are going to need to improve even more to compete as Michael Redd was by far their most consistent defensive player. 

6. Orlando +10  
I would guess that the jump from a 50 win team to a 60 team win is the hardest jump to make, but Orlando appears ready to make that jump, all with a porn star for a coach.  Orlando was very good this year, but they are a legitimate contender this year.  All anyone can talk about is the outside shooting of Orlando, but that isn't the real story to their improvement, as they were a very efficient offensive team before this year:

1.1 fewer points scored per 100 possessions
4.6 fewer points allowed per 100 possesions

Orlando is actually slightly less efficient offensively this year, despite still being a very good offense.  The difference is that they have gone from a solid defense to a great defense.  What a difference having a Dwight Howard as your back line must be. Teams without that force tend to struggle defensively (don't weep Jazz.)

7.  Portland +10
I know I saw this improvement coming and I think most people who follow the NBA saw it too, but it is impressive nonetheless.  This team functions offensively like a well-oiled machine, despite having relatively young parts.

6.1 more points scored per 100 possessions
0.3 more points allowed per 100 possesions

Portland is an average defensive team, but they are the 2nd most efficient offense in the league (110.2 points/100 possessions).  Portland has dead eye outside shooters, and guys who are extremely efficient inside (Pryzbilla and Oden.)  There is something to be said about those two guys shooting a combined 61.3% from the field. 

Teams Projected To Make The Biggest Steps Backwards: 

There are 3 teams expected to move more than 10 games in the wrong direction this year. Fans of these teams may not want to read on.

1. Washington -22
Aren't you glad you re-signed Gilbert Arenas and Antawan Jamison this off-season? It has really payed off, hasn't it.  This situation is bad going to worse. The numbers speak volumes:

4.8 fewer points scored per 100 possessions
1.1 more points given up per 100 possesions

That is bad especially considering the Wiz was one of the worst defensive teams a year ago.  There is no light at the end of the tunnel, either.  Arenas will help, but how much?  This situation is a total mess.

2. Golden State -19
This team won 48 games last year.  Can you believe it?  Monta Ellis is good, but Judas, did Baron Davis mean that much to the Warriors?(Of course not.  The Clips, despite only winning 22 games last year actually project to win 20 this year.) Golden State is a Golden mess.  They need to fire the coach, plain and simply.

3.6 fewer point scored per 100 possessions
3.3 more points given up per 100 possesions

Scoring less and giving up more points is never good, especially to the tune of 6.9 points a game.  I hope Ellis helps, and I'm sure he will, but they maybe should have thought of this before signing Cory "The Black Hole" Maggette.  He isn't that efficient offensively, and can't guard anyone.  Oh, well.

3. Sacramento -18
If anyone has watched this team, it's defensive effort is beyond putrid.  They just let the other team get any shot they want.  I'm not saying Reggie Theus was a good coach, but Red Auerbauch couldn't make these guys decent. 

3.3 fewer points scored per 100 possessions
3.7 more points given up per 100 possesions

Kings fans think they have a bright future, but I'm not so sure.  Maybe they can make some deals to get good, but without a star to build around (don't give me Kevin Martin. DON'T.) I don't see them being in contention for a long, long time.  With Sacto's luck, they'll get the #1 pick and take Blake Griffin, only to see him not be that great in the pros.

Ok, the rest of the teams fall in the middle of these, but there are a few interesting things out there

Other Thoughts:

Utah, Phoenix and Dallas are all projected at 8 fewer wins this year than last, and all are fairly similar to their defensive outputs of a year ago.  They are, however, all playing much worse on offense. 

New Jersey is in for a tough second half of the season.  The more difficult part of the season lies ahead, and regression to the mean is a bitch. 

Atlanta projects to 8 more wins due to improved offense and defensive efficiency.

San Antonio'svaunted defense is slipping, allowing 2.4 more points per 100 possessions than last year.  They project to 6 fewer wins.   Age is creeping in.

The LA Lakers are playing better offense and defense, but not by much.  Still, they project to 5 more wins than last year. 

Boston's number are nearly identical to last year, but they project to 2 fewer wins than last year (still 64).  This may be more of a product of the improvement of the rest of the teams in the East than a true slippage of Boston's ability, but we will see. 

Denver is roughly the same team as last year and their reported improvement on defense has led to a whopping .2 pp100 improvement.  The big difference is pace of play there.   A healthy Utah would catch and pass them.  Unfortunately for those of us who like the Jazz, it doesn't look like a healthy Jazz will ever be on the floor this season. 

Ok.  That was long.  If you read this far, I love you a little more than I did 25 minutes ago.  Here is a stat from this posting:

% of Times spelled possessions correctly: 20%

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